Well, there’s nothing wrong with this! A storm system will slowly move towards and over the region this weekend into early next week, giving us some very healthy rainfall totals in the region. Some will get a little, some will get a lot, but everyone should get something!

So How Much?

The official WPC forecast is a blend of different models with actual forecaster skill. In the image above you can see the areas with the highest risk of good rainfall are Southern OK and parts of the Texas South Plains. This roughly matches up with the two model graphics below.

The NAM forecast is more spotty with the heaviest locations of rain, but generally lines up with the WPC forecast on location.

The NAM forecast is more spotty with the heaviest locations of rain, but generally lines up with the WPC forecast on location.

The GFS is much more promising, with a more widespread rainfall event. Perhaps I'm biased, but let's go with this one.

The GFS is much more promising, with a more widespread rainfall event. Perhaps I’m biased, but let’s go with this one.

Severe Weather?

When it comes to rain events and springtime, it’s rare you can get through an entire event without severe weather. We wrote about today’s risk earlier, but there is also a risk of severe weather both tomorrow and Sunday, albeit both days are very low end.

The risk of severe storms on Sunday (top) and Monday (bottom).

The risk of severe storms on Sunday (top) and Monday (bottom).

We’ll have more details on both days when they arrive.

In the meantime, let’s hope this rain can help alleviate the drought, at least for a short time.