Looks like NW flow aloft is back on the menu with some severe weather chances across the region into this evening and overnight. This afternoon and evening, storms should fire across NE CO and NW KS. These initial storms could be supercells with large hail and a tornado possible.
With time those storms should become more linear in nature with a more substantial damaging winds threat evolving overnight as a line of storms marches south and east through the region.
But First, This Afternoon
It looks like a few scattered storms could be possible across Oklahoma this afternoon. These storms will pose a severe wind gust and perhaps marginally severe hail risk this afternoon. The HRRR seems pretty bullish with storm coverage and even develops a line in Oklahoma from afternoon into evening. Not sure if that’ll actually happen but a few storms are expected with very isolated severe weather.
The main event will be a line of storms entering S KS into NW OK at or just after sunset. This line of storms will move south and east through the region with a threat of damaging winds — which should be maximized at and north of the KS border.
The main threat with this activity will be damaging winds — and the complex itself should gradually weaken the further south of the Kansas border it goes. OKC and west along I-40 should see storms at or after midnight it looks at this time.