Severe weather is returning to the region tomorrow as a dryline sharpens up over the Texas/NM border up into Western Kansas. While a modest pool of moisture will reside east of the dryline, strong upper level lifting will contribute to thunderstorm development by late afternoon.
The chief limiting factor to tomorrow’s potential is most definitely the availability of low level moisture. Models are hinting at a pretty limited fetch of moisture, with the best storm juice still locked up along the coast tomorrow.
Furthermore, at least the 3KM NAM shows some pretty significant mixing out of dewpoints throughout the day east of the dryline as well.
This may keep storms from forming for a bit, but upper level lift is pretty strong into tomorrow evening and night. The most likely scenario is that storms form along the dryline but are rather high based, posing a mainly damaging winds and large hail threat.
The tornado threat itself tomorrow appears to be very limited. The wind shear tomorrow does look pretty favorable for supercells though. Check out this SCP graphic from the NAM 3KM:
Generally, tomorrow looks like a pretty low end day but one where some severe weather will likely occur. We’ve seen these enough before to know what to do. If you are new to the Plains though, our Severe Weather Preparedness courses on Titan U will help you develop a plan to stay informed and take action.
An Early Thought on Friday
Right now, Friday looks very intriguing. Two different severe weather setups appear to be taking shape for Friday afternoon.
One setup will be across Eastern OK into Arkansas. This setup will likely see storms form and congeal into a line with a damaging winds, hail, and low tornado threat in the afternoon and into the evening and overnight.
Another setup will be across Kansas in the early afternoon. Storms will likely form just to the east of a stacked upper low and pose a hail and low tornado threat. We’re watching both and will have another post on each setup soon!