Well, winter is officially out of the way on a consistent basis — that is unless you are someone that defines winter as highs in the 50s. The way it looks at this point is that we won’t see incredibly cold temperatures (highs below freezing) anytime soon. However, these 80s we’re enjoying on the Southern Plains may have their days numbered as well. All of that adds up to storm season probably not making an appearance anytime soon.

Ensemble high temps from the GEFS for the 180 hour period (about a week from now).

It looks like a cool and dry airmass may take precedence over the region soon, with highs only from the upper 40s to lower 60s across the region. The rich, tropical moisture will be well offshore at this time as well after next week’s front.

The same map but for the first week of March. Continued cool/dry.

This cool and dry pattern spells a pretty consistent signal that our temps will be at or slightly below normal — which isn’t particularly conducive for storm activity.

Cool and dry air moving south and east consistently means the ‘storm juice’ stays offshore.

The signal of cool/dry conditions is pretty consistent as well across model ensembles. The Canadian, Euro, and American ensembles all tend to point towards a period of pretty quiet weather coming up in the mid to long term for the Plains (after early next week’s system).

The cause of this pattern is a pretty flat, stagnant upper air pattern.

Generally, the flow will not be too amplified across the middle of the country with W to NW flow aloft. This keeps systems from drawing up moisture onto the Plains.

Storm Season: Sorta, But Not Really Just Yet

While we had storms this past Sunday across Texas and Oklahoma — that looks more an aberration than the beginning of storm season.

Our Spring storm season on the Plains typically takes awhile to get going regardless, with big events before March 15 relatively rare. This year appears to be following suit, with ensembles latching onto a solution that keeps our severe weather chances at a pretty low level through at least the first 10 days of March.

There will be a system moving through late this weekend into early next week which could bring a chance of severe storms across the region — especially on next Tuesday. However, that will be followed by a cold front with more cool and dry weather behind.

Generally, the next ten days will largely be quiet with a chance of some storm activity early next week. Beyond that, most indications are for a pretty quiet period of cool/dry weather.

Its not unheard of to have a generally quiet pattern mixed with a chance or two of severe weather or two this time of year. In fact, that’s largely expected for late February into Early March.

Storm season isn’t quite here, but it is most definitely coming.