It’s not much, but it’s THE severe thunderstorm event of the week. Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts are possible Wednesday across parts of the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys. A mid-level shortwave trough digs southeast into the mid Mississippi Valley, and moisture advection pushes dewpoints into the mid 50s by afternoon. Surface heating brings weak destabilization along a moist axis, where lift from the trough should trigger scattered storms in the late afternoon and early evening.

What I’m watching:

• Where storms form: Development is favored near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Storms then spread east across southern Indiana, western Kentucky, and northern Tennessee in the early evening.
• Shear vs. instability: Model soundings over western Kentucky at 00Z (6 p.m. CST) show MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 50 kt. That’s enough for a marginal severe threat and a few severe wind gusts.
• Poor lapse rates: This is the limiting factor. It should keep any severe threat localized.

Hail 1.75 inches in diameter, roughly golf-ball-sized, fell 1 mile west of Benavides in Duval County, Texas at 8:15 a.m. CST on Tuesday, November 10. Law enforcement on scene reported the event to the National Weather Service office in Corpus Christi.

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Extremes from weather stations across the Lower 48 for 11/09/26 (each station’s local calendar day).

Lower 48

• Highest temperature: 90°F at SAN DIEGO/GILLESPIE, CA
• Lowest temperature: 16°F at KREMMLING, CO
• Most rain: 3.07″ at COTULLA MUNICIPAL, TX
• Strongest gust: 85 mph at Mount Washington, NH

Tornado Titans coverage states

• Highest temperature: 87°F at Laguna AAF, AZ
• Lowest temperature: 16°F at KREMMLING, CO
• Most rain: 3.07″ at COTULLA MUNICIPAL, TX
• Strongest gust: 40 mph at LIVINGSTON/MISSION, MT

Values are preliminary station reports and can change once observations are quality controlled. Records set or tied are on the Records page.

Daily recap: Titan Track followed 1 storm in Texas during the convective day that began 11/09/26.

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MRMS radar estimates show 4.79 inches of rain in 1 hour near 11 ESE of El Campo, TX, an amount expected about once every 100 years at that location (a 1.0% chance in any given year, based on NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency estimates).

Area covered: 63 square miles at 10 years or more, 10 square miles at 100 years or more.

Return periods come from radar-only rainfall estimates and are preliminary; gauge reports and NWS reviews can change the final picture.

Outlines at the 10, 25, 100 and 500-year levels, the highest totals and the towns: rainfall return-period map.

Texas outlook downgraded: The Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook dropped Texas from Slight Risk to Marginal Risk as the heaviest rain has already moved offshore. The Marginal Risk now focuses on the Hill Country and South-Central Texas into the overnight hours.

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New record: The National Weather Service reported 1 climate record since the last update. Nebraska recorded 1 new record high at Omaha. The record tied an existing mark at that station.

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Satellite survey confirms: A tornado that moved through Cibola National Forest on October 22 was rated EF1, with peak winds near 100 mph. High-resolution satellite imagery revealed extensive tree damage that aligned with the radar signature captured during the event.

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Heavy rain and flash flooding possible: Shallow convective cores tracking northeast across the Edwards Plateau and Texas Hill Country pose a flash flood threat through 6:00 p.m. CST as they move over deeply saturated ground. Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour are possible, with localized spots reaching 1.5 inches. With saturation ratios near 100 percent, additional rainfall may convert to runoff into already-stressed streams, raising flash flood risk.

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