LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
A Lot More Bluer Tones on the Map Tonight
Much cooler air is filtering onto the Plains and into the Southwest. This is likely part of a much larger scale pattern change that will keep the temps lower across…
FLOOD WARNING
Maricopa, AZ · Flood Warning issued November 3 at 8:09PM MST until November 7 at 2:00PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ · until 2:00 PM MST
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FORECAST
Tornadoes Possible Today Across Oklahoma, S. Kansas
A strong tornado is possible with supercells that form in the late afternoon and persist into the evening/nighttime hours.
QUICK FORECAST
Evening Models Showing a Robust Severe Threat Tomorrow
There wasn't much change to thinking about tomorrow. Storms will form across the Southern Plains tomorrow with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all being possible. The nature of the threat is going to depend on WHERE and WHEN storms form to be sure. A…
FIELD DISPATCH
Band of convection reaches unstable air west of Santa Rosa, NM
At 5:59 p.m. MST Sunday, November 1, a band of convection west of Santa Rosa, New Mexico has moved into more unstable air, with storm intensification likely over the next hour. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues until 9:00 p.m. MST.
FIELD DISPATCH
Towers growing in eastern New Mexico under sheared, unstable air
At 5:25 p.m. MST Sunday near Torrance County, NM, towers were growing in an unstable and highly sheared airmass. Bases were darkening as daylight faded. The setup could support an active night, with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 9:00 p.m. MST and SPC indicating at least some increase i
The Latest
Auto-updating · 30s
9:14 PM MST
6 MINUTES AGO
Two tornadoes rated EF0 and EF1 sweep across northeastern Oklahoma
Official survey confirms: The National Weather Service office in Tulsa confirmed two tornadoes across northeastern Oklahoma on the night of 11/02/26 into the early morning of 11/03/26. Peak winds reached 80 mph in the first tornado and 95 mph in the second, with paths spanning 2.7 and 3.1 miles respectively.
Final Numbers
Severe
7:20 PM MST
2 HOURS AGO
Storm Strengthening in Orange County, TX
Tracking ended: The storm 36 miles east-southeast of Port Arthur, TX is no longer being tracked as of 9:10 p.m. CST.
Radar Intelligence
Ended
Titan Track Data
7:12 PM MST
2 HOURS AGO
Flash flood warning holds in Coconino as dam releases fuel river flooding
Flood warnings unchanged: A flash flood warning remains in effect for Coconino County through 9:00 p.m. MST as flooding persists across south-central Arizona. The warning reflects ongoing hydrologic impacts from upstream dam releases driving high streamflow into major river systems downstream.
Mesoanalysis Update
Flood
6:54 PM MST
2 HOURS AGO
A Lot More Bluer Tones on the Map Tonight
Much cooler air is filtering onto the Plains and into the Southwest. This is likely part of a much larger scale pattern change that will keep the temps lower across much of the country, officially bringing fall in.
High temperatures this next week in places like Oklahoma City, Albuquerque, and Wichita will struggle to reach the 70s. Most likely, we’re moving into a pattern that’s less favorable for regular shots at severe weather — and in fact we may be closer to a winter storm event than we are another substantial tornado risk in the region.
I’ve been seriously considering putting up the cameras for the winter and preparing my offseason plans for next Spring. I’ll have more on the long-range on our YouTube channel soon!
Check out the 15 day dewpoint forecast from the GFS, nothing happening here:
Quick Post
By Tornado Titans
6:53 PM MST
2 HOURS AGO
New Mexico upgraded to advisory as winter system spreads
Outlook shifts east: The winter threat across the Southwest remains at Minor Impacts overall, but New Mexico has been upgraded from no risk to Winter Weather Advisory level.
Outlook Update
Winter
6:42 PM MST
3 HOURS AGO
Colorado upgraded to Minor Impacts in winter outlook revision
Outlook shifts higher: The Winter Storm Severity Index moved to its highest level of Minor Impacts in the latest update, reflecting a change in the expected winter weather pattern across the central plains. Colorado was raised from Winter Weather Advisory level to Minor Impacts.
Outlook Update
Winter
6:32 PM MST
3 HOURS AGO
Slight Risk holds for Mississippi Valley heavy rain
Iowa removed: The Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook kept a Slight Risk across portions of the Mississippi Valley, but Iowa has been lowered out of the risk area. The highest risk remains focused on Mississippi and Tennessee.
Outlook Update
Flood
5:01 PM MST
4 HOURS AGO
Flash flood warning holds in Coconino as moisture remains limited
Flood warnings steady: One flash flood warning remains in effect for Coconino County through 9:00 p.m. MST, with no change in the count of active warnings over the past two hours. The flood regime across Arizona is being driven by ongoing dam releases into major river systems rather than atmospheric moisture available for heavy rain.
Mesoanalysis Update
Flood
4:14 PM MST
5 HOURS AGO
Tornado Warning for Storm Near Crossett, AR
Merged: This storm merged with a nearby storm at 5:22 p.m. CST.
Radar Intelligence
Merged
Titan Track Data
4:01 PM MST
5 HOURS AGO
Ashley County, AR Storm Prompts Tornado Warning
Tracking ended: The storm cluster 10 miles south-southeast of Monticello, AR is no longer being tracked as of 6:16 p.m. CST.
Radar Intelligence
Ended
Titan Track Data
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