New Mexican Monsoon Ramps Up a Bit
One of the ‘good news things’ that are actually good news, is that the Monsoon pattern across New Mexico has really begun to crank the last couple of days. As…
One of the ‘good news things’ that are actually good news, is that the Monsoon pattern across New Mexico has really begun to crank the last couple of days. As…
Football may be starting up, but it’s still very much summer for most people on the Plains into the Southwest.
Seriously, I wish I had better news. But I don't.
Nebraska is the headliner of the day, with a potent atmosphere possible by afternoon. However, a strong cap may have something to say about when/where storms form…
Nothing stands out as particularly impressive in terms of environments today, but a severe storm seems likely today.
The Weather Prediction Center is monitoring James River Valley, North-Central South Dakota, Northeast South Dakota / Watertown, Southwest Minnesota, Northwest Iowa, Southeast South Dakota / Sioux Falls, and Central South Dakota / Pierre for the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding in the near term. Column moisture is high, with PWAT near 1.6 inches supporting efficient rainfall. 19 cells are active in the region, but no warnings are issued as of yet.
A 77 mph wind gust was reported at 11:50 pm MDT, located 1 mile west-southwest of Guymon, Oklahoma. This wind gust was measured by an ASOS site. That’s the 1st wind gust report in Oklahoma today, and the 11th nationwide. It ranks 1st strongest wind gust of the day so far. The storm producing this report has moved on from this area. This severe weather event was fueled by DCAPE in excess of 1484 J/kg.
The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring North-Central South Dakota, North-Central North Dakota / Minot, Red River Valley North / Grand Forks, Northwest Minnesota, Northwest Iowa, North-Central Nebraska, Southeast South Dakota / Sioux Falls, and Central South Dakota / Pierre for the possibility of a couple of severe storms in the near term. The main threat will be hail up to golf balls and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. MUCAPE near 5240 J/kg will support large hail growth.
We're monitoring a persistent multicell cluster 3 S of Earlville, IA. This storm's threat score has fallen 27 points over the last 48 minutes, with cloud top warming in the same window. Storm Threat is now 2, with tornado threat 0, hail threat 5, wind threat 21.
The NWS has this cell under a severe thunderstorm warning issued 18 minutes ago with hail called at 0.75" and wind at 60 mph. The environment ahead of the cell is becoming less conducive to severe weather with time as the cell is moving ESE at 17 mph. We'll be monitoring this storm to see if it can make a comeback, but most likely it's on its way out this evening.
Wind damage was reported at 6:00 pm MDT, located Manchester, Iowa. This wind gust came from an emergency manager. That’s the 1st wind gust report in Iowa today, and every one of today’s wind gust reports nationwide has come from Iowa. The storm producing this report has moved on from this area. This severe weather event was fueled by DCAPE in excess of 1725 J/kg.
We're monitoring a stalled multicell cluster 11 ESE of Beaver City, NE. This storm's threat score has fallen 26 points over the last 52 minutes, with mesocyclone collapsing, cloud top warming, and core shrinking in the same window. Storm Threat is now 11, with tornado threat 0, hail threat 27, wind threat 31.
A warning is in effect for this cell. The environment ahead of the cell is becoming less conducive to severe weather with time as the cell is moving ENE at 5 mph. We'll be monitoring this storm to see if it can make a comeback, but most likely it's on its way out this evening.
We've got our eyes on a isolated multicell cluster 8 SSE of Beaver City, NE where Hail Threat has just crossed 58. Radar shows MESH now at 2.5", VIL loaded to 64, a 70 dBZ core stacked above the freezing level, and a hail core still growing. Storm threat 34, tornado threat 0, wind threat 13.
The NWS has this cell under a severe thunderstorm warning issued 3 minutes ago with hail called at 1.5" and wind at 60 mph. Radar signatures reinforce the warning's read — this storm indeed has giant hail possible within its core. The environment stays hail-favorable through the next two hours: freezing level near 16,015 ft, MLCAPE near 2806 J/kg, effective shear at 33 kt as the cell is moving NNE at 17 mph.
We've got our eyes on a vigorous multicell cluster 7 ENE of Elgin, IA where Hail Threat has just crossed 52, up from 31 21 minutes ago. Radar shows MESH now at 1.8", VIL loaded to 63, a 65 dBZ core stacked above the freezing level, and a hail core still growing. Storm threat 43, tornado threat 0, wind threat 12.
The NWS has this cell under a severe thunderstorm warning issued 2 minutes ago with hail called at 1.25" and wind at 60 mph. Radar signatures reinforce the warning's read — this storm indeed has giant hail possible within its core. The environment stays hail-favorable through the next two hours: freezing level near 15,197 ft, MLCAPE near 3470 J/kg, effective shear at 28 kt as the cell is moving SW at 12 mph.
The Weather Prediction Center is monitoring Central New Mexico, North-Central New Mexico, Northeast New Mexico Plains, Southeast New Mexico, Southeast Arizona, and Northeast Arizona for the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding in the near term. Column moisture is high, with PWAT near 1.6 inches supporting efficient rainfall. Five cells are active in the region, but no warnings are issued as of yet. The most notable cell is located 25 N of Milan, NM.
A 81 mph wind gust was reported at 3:59 pm MDT, located 3 miles northeast of Aspermont, Texas. This wind gust was measured by an automated weather station. That’s the 1st wind gust report in Texas today, and the 305th nationwide. It ranks 1st strongest wind gust of the day so far. The storm producing this report has moved on from this area. This severe weather event was fueled by DCAPE in excess of 2111 J/kg.
We're monitoring a struggling multicell cluster 4 SSW of McGregor, IA. This storm's threat score has fallen 20 points over the last 41 minutes. Storm Threat is now 22, with tornado threat 0, hail threat 11, wind threat 29.
The NWS has this cell under a severe thunderstorm warning issued 2 minutes ago with hail called at 0.75" and wind at 60 mph. The environment ahead is already worked over from earlier convection, so a comeback would be difficult as the cell is moving S at 7 mph. We'll be monitoring this storm to see if it can make a comeback, but most likely it's on its way out this late afternoon.
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