Gulf development likely: A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week, with a 60 percent chance in 2 days and 80 percent chance within 7 days.

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Development expected: A broad area of low pressure south of southern Mexico has a 70% chance of forming a tropical depression within 2 days and a 90% chance within 7 days. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development.

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Rain is coming back, but it’ll be a more typical setup for the Southwest onto the Plains.

While the next week will be mostly dry (tropical activity in the Gulf notwithstanding) — we are going to see the middle of the month bring Rain Chances back (October 11-15 or so). The current CPC outlook shows a pretty strong likelihood of above-average precipitation for much of the country. From what I’ve seen on models, there may be just enough instability for some strong to even severe storms, but there’s also going to be a lot of cold air with this mid-month system. The GFS continues to show a pretty notable snow swath from Colorado into the Central Plains. It keeps wanting to bring snow to that area, so we’re likely not too far off from our first flakes of the year for parts of the Plains.

Overall, I suspect the mid-month system will bring another healthy dose of rainfall totals, but its unlikely we’ll see another historic rainfall event out of this one…it’ll feel more like a typical system with solid rain totals for a lot of folks.

A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form mid-week. The system is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days before turning northward towards the Gulf Coast. It is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should monitor this system’s progress.

As we look ahead of the system, conditions are pretty favorable with very warm waters present in the Gulf along with lighter shear for now. Most likely, we will end up with another named storm out of this one if trends hold…

Official totals confirmed: Rain totals across South Texas reached 9.73 inches at El Toro Ranch in Willacy County, with measurements documented at multiple sites across the region.

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Critical conditions possible: Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central and western Montana today as westerly winds aloft move in and afternoon relative humidity drops sharply.

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Wet pattern ends: A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect over the southern Lower Texas coast today.

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Critical fire conditions develop: Elevated fire weather risk spreads across Wyoming today as westerly winds aloft move into the region this afternoon. Downslope flow will lower humidity to 10-20%, with the driest conditions expected in Wyoming.

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Flash flooding threat continues: A persistent tropical band of showers and thunderstorms with training behavior remains near the far southern tip of Texas, capable of producing heavy rainfall through 1:00 p.m. CDT. Flash flooding is possible as the band lingers with little movement expected.

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Heavy rain continues: Occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are maintaining a flash flood threat over far southern Texas through 8:10 a.m. CDT. Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts above 3 inches, is possible.

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