Summer Is Inevitable
Football may be starting up, but it’s still very much summer for most people on the Plains into the Southwest.
100°F temps will be possible in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas through the first week of September.
Hot. Dry. Sometimes not. But never that severe. It’s been this way for three months over much of the Central/Southern Plains into the Southwest. It’s not changing.
Don’t Lose Sleep On This: It doesn’t matter what you do, it doesn’t matter where you are in life…summer is inevitable right now. This stagnant pattern with a ridge blocking the jet stream up and over the Plains will continue until morale improves, or something. Don’t ask me.
The Transition to Fall is Not Near: Ensemble spread in the distance is starting to increase, which is likely a sign of an impending pattern change out in the mid-late parts of this month. I do suspect we’ll see a quick fall season of severe weather on the Southern Plains and a transition season that’s a bit more eventful in the Southwest. But all of that is likely still ‘to come’ and not imminent.
Immovable Object: The ridge, pictured in this ensemble forecast, isn't moving. In fact, it's only just wobbled for several months now. This has allowed flow to sometimes ride up and over the top of the ridge, bringing severe weather chances to places as far south as Colorado or Northwest Kansas, or even the Southern Plains. But the orientation of the ridge right now is very much not favorable for that, shunting flow well to the north.
Eventually This Pattern Will Change: Oklahoma City is not ground zero for the new Sahara just yet. This pattern will change into something more closely resembling El Niño by the end of this month I suspect. In fact, it may be quite a whiplash from extremely hot and dry to cool and wet -- just it's taking its sweet time right now.
Stagnation: Stagnant patterns like this one always bring limited ingredients to bear. This one has been no different. We’ve seen moisture at more limited levels across portions of the Southwest into the Southern Plains. We’ve also seen very limited shear in most places south of I-80. This has created a harsh environment for any severe weather to survive.
Drought Rising: Because of this pattern, which has been around in some form since March, we’re seeing some pretty remarkable drought conditions across the region. I wish I had better news here, things are likely to get worse before they get better. But change is coming, though it’s still not quite close to being here. Alas. For folks in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado, or New Mexico — this is going to be a painful wait to get some rain on the ground.