Southern Plains Severe Storm/Supercell Threat Today
A few severe storms are likely into the late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and perhaps some hail are possible.
Storm Coverage will be pretty widespread across the Texas Panhandle into NW Oklahoma.
Another day of a low-end severe setup with low shear present for much of the region, but we're watching SE New Mexico carefully for a more concentrated supercell threat.
A trough sitting over Arizona and northwest Mexico is driving moderately strong southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains today. Morning obs already hint at what's coming: dewpoints in the mid-60s to near 70°F and healthy PW values streaming from the middle Texas coast into the eastern TX Panhandle. The catch is a mid/high cloud deck riding in ahead of that trough, spreading over the richest moisture and likely capping how much the boundary layer can heat, especially the farther west you go.
Overall the relatively highest threat area extends from the Texas Panhandle into NW Oklahoma and S. Kansas.
- Instability: Even with the cloud cover working against it, models still bring around 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE into place by mid-afternoon across northwest TX into western OK. With some breaks further west, instability could approach 1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE across portions of SE New Mexico. Still, this is a lower instability setup no matter how you slice it.
- Shear: Low-level winds veer from southeasterly to southwesterly and strengthen to 25-30 kt at 500mb, enough to help a storm or two get organized. Shear values are generally at or below 30kt overall, but that may be enough to organize a supercell or two.
- Where: Recent guidance points to the Caprock northeastward through northwest OK, possibly nudging into adjacent Kansas, as the most likely spot for a couple of semi-organized storms, maybe a weak supercell or two, later this afternoon. Further SW into SE New Mexico, storms will form off of the Sacramento Mountains and move east. The ingredient space is similar here but storms will have slightly more organized shear to work with. I think a supercell or three are possible.
- Heating vs. cloud cover: Modest mid-level lapse rates plus that overcast could keep a lid on things. How much sun actually breaks through decides whether this stays a "couple of cells" day or underperforms.
- Upscale growth vs. isolation: It's a time-old tradition of two storm modes being possible and the overall day hinging on it. If storm outflows congeal and we get more of a cluster situation in either spot, damaging winds are the primary threat with hail becoming a secondary threat to even a non-issue.
- Tornado Risk? I don't see much supporting a classic supercell tornado risk today. There's always a chance of a rogue landspout -- but nothing really screams "mesocyclone induced tornadoes" today.