A Couple of Tornadoes Possible For The Plains

A complex but classic setup is taking shape over the Plains today, with severe weather surely to follow.

A mid/upper-level low pushes from the southern Rockies toward the central High Plains through tonight, dragging a slow-moving surface low across the southern High Plains with it. A warm front tries to lift north out ahead of that low, but lingering clouds and precipitation could slow its progress. Meanwhile, a strong low-level jet (50+ kt) shifts northeast across central/eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa by evening, keeping wind profiles cranked up near that warm front.

• Kansas/far SE Nebraska: Destabilization near the warm front may stay weak thanks to limited heating and soft mid-level lapse rates. Even so, the wind profiles near the boundary are strong enough that this area's been upgraded, with multiple tornadoes considered a viable possibility even if instability stays muted.
• SW Oklahoma/NW Texas/Edwards Plateau: This is where confidence in real destabilization is highest. A very moist airmass heats up to near/above 1,500 J/kg MLCAPE despite unimpressive mid-level lapse rates. New storms develop late afternoon into evening ahead of the approaching upper low, with moderate deep-layer shear supporting organization.
• Hazards: Strong to severe gusts look like the most likely hazard, with isolated hail possible in southwest Texas where destabilization runs strongest. The tornado risk is real, especially in Kansas near the warm front and further south with possible QLCS spin ups well after dark.

• Will the clouds break? How much morning cloud cover and precipitation clears out determines whether the Kansas warm-front zone gets real heating, though SPC is leaning on the wind profiles more than instability for that tornado potential. I tend to agree. The wind profiles are as such that any robust updraft will have a chance to spin, just like yesterday in the Texas Panhandle.
• Timing down south: Coverage and persistence of early storms across the southern Plains is uncertain, with a tendency to weaken and/or shift north by early afternoon. The HRRR is holding off on severe development until about sunset. That's not unreasonable, but oftentimes the HRRR is a bit late on when storms go.
• Supercell window: Storms near the TX/OK border start out with supercell potential but should trend toward a linear mode as coverage increases and flow turns more front-parallel. A modest evening uptick in low-level turning could still support a localized tornado threat before the line consolidates. A QLCS tornado hazard is there even still...but low.
• Overnight staying power: An isolated severe threat could hang on into central Texas/Oklahoma overnight, gradually weakening with time and eastward extent.
• Wildcard zone: A few strong to locally severe lower-topped storms are also possible across the south-central High Plains, contingent on how much destabilization actually shows up there. I also would not doubt a tornado or two if you get enough 3CAPE in this region.