FREEZE WATCH
New Mexico · Freeze Watch issued October 12 at 11:35PM MDT until October 15 at 9:00AM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM · until 1:00 PM MDT
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9:41 AM MDT
5 MINUTES AGO
Slight Risk for severe storms over Missouri Valley tonight
Isolated storms possible: The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for parts of Iowa, Arkansas and Missouri today.
- Where Iowa, Arkansas and Missouri
- When Storm coverage peaks in the early morning in the model timing
- Risk Slight Risk (2 of 5)
- Tornado / Hail / Wind 2% / 15% / 15%
The Setup
An 850 mb jet of about 32 kt near Williamsburg, IA drives moisture transport and enlarges low-level shear and 0-1 km SRH, which reaches 110 m2/s2 at Exira, IA. However, the environment is sharply limited by weak mid-level instability: across Iowa, Arkansas, Missouri and Minnesota, MLCAPE runs mostly 0 to 300 J/kg, with MLCIN at 0 J/kg median. At the strongest point near Exira, MLCAPE sits at 0 J/kg while MUCAPE reaches only 850 J/kg. Low-level moisture is modest, with PWAT mostly 0.9 to 1.7 inches across the region. Strong deep-layer westerly flow, with 500 mb winds near 58 kt and 250 mb winds reaching 119 kt, provides storm-motion support and enhanced shear, yet the overall magnitude of instability constrains severe potential.
How Today Unfolds
- Early morning: Storm coverage peaks according to model timing.
- Daytime: Activity continues into the afternoon across the Missouri Valley.
- Evening and overnight: Activity winds down by evening as the system moves east.
Hazard by Hazard
- Tornado: 2 percent probability; any sustained surface-based storms could organize given curved low-level hodographs from deep-layer westerly flow and low-level southwesterlies, though modest buoyancy limits overall threat magnitude.
- Large hail: 15 percent probability; 0-6 km bulk shear of 20 to 50 kt across much of the region and SCP values reaching 2.6 near Exira support hail development in organized storms.
- Damaging wind: 15 percent probability; 0-1 km SRH up to 110 m2/s2 and DCAPE reaching 1,600 J/kg in pockets support downdraft potential and wind damage in any organized convection.
What Local Offices Are Saying
- The Quad Cities office notes isolated strong to severe storms are possible tonight, with primary threats of large hail, locally damaging winds and heavy downpours.
- The Des Moines office notes isolated showers and storms remain possible near and south of the I-80 corridor through sunrise, with coverage generally low and activity confined behind the surface front continuing to push southeast.
The Question Mark
Uncertainty centers on the degree of airmass destabilization as clouds and precipitation interact with relatively warm low to mid-level temperatures. The modest buoyancy observed in the HRRR suggests overall magnitude and coverage of severe potential may remain limited.
Updated 10:41 a.m. CDT
Quick Post
9:21 AM MDT
25 MINUTES AGO
Slight Risk covers Southern Plains as deep moisture fuels training storms
Deep moisture arrives: The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 of 4) for parts of Oklahoma and Texas today.
- Where Oklahoma and Texas
- When Storm coverage peaks in the early morning in the model timing
- Risk Slight Risk (2 of 4)
The Setup
An 850 mb jet of about 33 kt from the southwest near Boise City, Oklahoma, drives a surge of Gulf moisture northward into the Southern Plains, with PWAT mostly 1.4 to 2.2 inches across Oklahoma and Texas and dewpoints 67 to 76°F at the surface. MUCAPE ranges from 500 to 1,700 J/kg across much of the region, climbing to 3,250 J/kg in isolated pockets. Steep mid-level lapse rates (6.4 to 7.0 C/km from 700 to 500 mb) enhance the instability. Bulk shear of 15 to 25 kt in the 0-6 km layer is marginal for organized severe convection but sufficient to sustain training storms and backbuilding cells. Southwesterly flow at 18 to 37 kt through the mid-levels may steer storm clusters from west to east.
How Today Unfolds
- Early morning: Storm coverage peaks as the low-level jet maximizes moisture transport and training becomes most pronounced.
- Afternoon: Activity winds down as daytime heating subsides and the moisture axis shifts eastward.
Hazard by Hazard
- Flash flooding: High rain rates from training storms and backbuilding cells are the primary threat. The overlap of deep moisture (PWAT 2.51 in near Port Lavaca) and high instability (MUCAPE 3,100 J/kg) supports efficient rain production, especially where storms stall or repeatedly train over the same area.
- Localized wind damage: Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible, where upper-level winds reach 56 kt at 500 mb and 77 kt at 250 mb.
What Local Offices Are Saying
- The Tulsa office notes that storms will develop across western Oklahoma and southern Kansas this evening and spread eastward through overnight hours, with chances increasing across northeast Oklahoma late tonight and continuing into Wednesday with locally heavy rainfall.
- The Lubbock office expects isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning along the New Mexico state line, with more widespread activity developing in the afternoon and evening as strong to severe storms produce heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to 60 mph.
- The Norman office highlights record warm low temperatures overnight as deep moisture advection spreads northward, with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected by sunrise, intensifying the thermodynamic environment for organized convection.
Updated 10:21 a.m. CDT
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9:06 AM MDT
40 MINUTES AGO
Simon stalls near Mexico as track forecast shifts south
Slow and uncertain: Hurricane Simon has positioned itself on the south side of a steering saddle point, resulting in a very slow westward drift of 2 mph and a substantially southward shift in the National Hurricane Center track forecast. The storm, located 105 miles west of Cabo Corrientes, maintains 90 mph maximum sustained winds but faces low-confidence forecasts for both track and intensity over the next five days.
- Winds 90 mph
- Pressure 977 mb
- Moving W at 2 mph
- Location About 105 mi (165 km) W of Cabo Corrientes Mexico
Where It Is Now
Simon sits at 20.3N 107.3W with a central pressure of 977 mb and is moving west at 2 mph. Satellite imagery this morning shows a small, open eyewall with -65 to -70 C cold cloud tops, though satellite intensity estimates range widely from 47 kt to 95 kt, reflecting uncertainty in the small circulation. The hurricane weakened from 110 mph 24 hours earlier and now holds 90 mph with hurricane-force winds extending 10 miles from center and tropical-storm-force winds to 45 miles.
The Forecast
Simon is expected to move very slowly over the next 36 to 48 hours, potentially making a small cyclonic loop, before deep-layer steering finally begins to shift and allow northward motion by the 48-72 hour window. The intensity forecast shows the hurricane maintaining 90 mph through 48 hours, then weakening to 85 mph by 60 hours and 80 mph by 72 hours as southwesterly vertical wind shear increases. Between 96 and 120 hours, Simon could reach the Mexican coast as a tropical storm or post-tropical low, though the track forecast should be considered very low confidence, with solutions ranging from landfall in mainland Mexico to impacts on Baja California Sur to remaining south of Mexico entirely.
Why It’s Doing This
Simon sits very close to a saddle point in the deep-layer steering flow, making its future track extremely sensitive to which side of that feature it occupies. The storm has gained very little latitude in 24 hours and now finds itself on the south side, necessitating a substantially southward shift from the prior track. Low vertical shear over the next 48 hours and sea-surface temperatures in the 29-30 C range support intensity maintenance, though Simon's slow motion could induce cool ocean upwelling, with subsurface waters at 28 C to about 80 meters depth based on ocean glider data. The small inner-core structure makes Simon sensitive to environmental changes that could produce rapid intensity fluctuations in either direction. After 48 hours, a deep-layer cutoff low digging into southern California should push steering flow out of the south, allowing northward motion. The intensity guidance envelope is extremely wide this morning, ranging from tropical depression weakness to major hurricane reintensification over 48-60 hours, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in forecasting a small hurricane in a complex steering environment.
Hazards and Alerts
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for north of Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya and Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Watch covers Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa. Hurricane conditions are possible for Las Islas Marias on Wednesday and mainland Mexico on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches is expected over portions of Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa by Friday. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely from swells generated by Simon affecting southwestern and west-central Mexico. Those in watch areas should monitor products issued by Mexico's national meteorological service.
Coastal Watches and Warnings in Effect
- Hurricane Watch
- Tropical Storm Watch
Official watch and warning text
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Hurricane Watch for Las Islas Marias. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and in Baja California Sur should continue to monitor as changes to watches and warnings are possible today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Official Forecast
| Forecast | Valid | Winds | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Tue 10/13/26 8 a.m. MST | 90 mph | Category 1 hurricane |
| 12 hr | Tue 10/13/26 5 p.m. MST | 90 mph | Category 1 hurricane |
| 24 hr | Wed 10/14/26 5 a.m. MST | 90 mph | Category 1 hurricane |
| 36 hr | Wed 10/14/26 5 p.m. MST | 90 mph | Category 1 hurricane |
| 48 hr | Thu 10/15/26 5 a.m. MST | 90 mph | Category 1 hurricane |
| 60 hr | Thu 10/15/26 5 p.m. MST | 85 mph | Category 1 hurricane |
| 72 hr | Fri 10/16/26 5 a.m. MST | 80 mph | Category 1 hurricane |
| 96 hr | Sat 10/17/26 5 a.m. MST | 65 mph | tropical storm |
| 120 hr | Sun 10/18/26 5 a.m. MST | 35 mph | Post-Trop/Inland |
What to Watch
The next advisory will assess whether Simon has stalled further or begun its forecasted slow westward drift with possible cyclonic looping. Track and intensity forecast confidence remain very low, and changes to watches and warnings are possible later today based on forecast trends. Interests in west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor closely for updates.
More
If you are in a watch or warning area, follow guidance from local officials and your National Weather Service office.
Updated Tue 10/13/26 8:06 a.m. MST
Quick Post
9:00 AM MDT
46 MINUTES AGO
Slight Risk over Northwest Oklahoma as cap weakens
Heat and moisture build: The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for parts of Oklahoma and Texas today.
- Where Oklahoma and Texas
- When Storm coverage peaks in the early morning in the model timing
- Risk Slight Risk (2 of 5)
- Tornado / Hail / Wind 2% / 15% / 0%
The Setup
An upper trough displaced to the northwest leaves much of Oklahoma and Texas beneath a ridge, limiting synoptic forcing. The region sits capped: median MLCIN runs -120 J/kg, requiring weakening inhibition or strong lifting to initiate surface-based storms. An 850 mb jet of about 33 kt northeast of Boise City, OK drives moisture transport and enlarges low-level shear. MLCAPE across Oklahoma and Texas ranges mostly 400 to 1,300 J/kg, with 0-6 km bulk shear 15 to 25 kt and 0-1 km SRH 50 to 175 m2/s2. The strongest overlap occurs 13 mi WNW of Normangee, TX: MLCAPE 1,200 J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear 25 kt, 0-1 km SRH 70 m2/s2, and LCL 1,000 ft. Surface dewpoints reach 82°F at Sinton, with 236 stations reporting 65°F or higher.
How Today Unfolds
- Early morning: Storm coverage peaks in the model timing across the region.
- Afternoon: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop with activity spreading eastward across the region.
- Late afternoon and evening: Activity winds down as daytime heating diminishes.
Hazard by Hazard
- Tornadoes: 2 percent probability. Supercells are possible given 0-1 km SRH of 50 to 175 m2/s2 and 0-3 km SRH reaching 120 m2/s2 at the strongest overlap, but the cap and weak STP (0.0 at the overlap) limit tornadic potential.
- Large hail: 15 percent probability. MLCAPE 400 to 1,300 J/kg and DCAPE reaching 1,600 J/kg support updraft development and hail production.
- Damaging wind: Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible. DCAPE of 950 to 1,600 J/kg provides downdraft energy.
What Local Offices Are Saying
- The Norman office highlights record warmth with OKC forecast near 90°F and record warm overnight lows as deep moisture advection spreads northward, creating upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints by sunrise across the region.
- The Tulsa office expects a Limited Severe Risk over Northeast Oklahoma with thunderstorms developing across western Oklahoma and southern Kansas this evening, spreading east and southward overnight. Chances increase across northeast Oklahoma late tonight into Wednesday.
- The Lubbock office forecasts isolated showers and thunderstorms along the New Mexico state line in the morning, with more widespread activity in the afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms could produce wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rainfall.
The Question Mark
The timing and intensity of lifting mechanisms that overcome the regional cap will determine whether storms remain isolated or organize into stronger cells over the region.
Updated 10:00 a.m. CDT
Quick Post
8:56 AM MDT
50 MINUTES AGO
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E forms; rapid intensification forecast
New system south of Mexico: Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E has formed in the East Pacific about 540 miles southeast of Acapulco. The National Hurricane Center forecasts rapid intensification over the next three days, with the system reaching major hurricane strength by Friday.
- Winds 35 mph
- Pressure 1006 mb
- Moving NW at 10 mph
- Location About 540 mi (870 km) SSE of Acapulco Mexico
Where It Is Now
The depression is centered near 9.8N 96.5W with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and a central pressure of 1006 mb. Satellite shows large areas of banded deep convection north and east of the low-level center; an OSCAT pass this morning revealed a closed circulation, though still broad and somewhat elongated with weak winds within 75 nautical miles of center. The convective organization and curved banding have increased over the past several hours, and the circulation has tightened. The system is moving northwest at 10 mph.
The Forecast
A west-northwestward to northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night while a mid-level ridge persists over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. After day 2, a turn to the northwest or north-northwest is likely as the ridge weakens, with a decrease in forward speed expected as the cyclone enters weaker steering currents. Track forecast spread is larger than normal from day 3 to 5; several ensemble members show the system potentially making landfall in southwestern or west-central Mexico as a hurricane over the weekend, though confidence in the track is low beyond day 3. Intensity is forecast to reach tropical storm strength by Tuesday evening, 60 mph by Wednesday morning, Category 1 hurricane status by Wednesday evening, and Category 4 strength by Friday morning, with peak winds near 140 mph by Saturday.
Why It’s Doing This
Sea surface temperatures in the depression's path exceed 28 degrees Celsius, and vertical wind shear is light over the next 72 hours. Steady strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours as the system develops a convective core, followed by rapid intensification during the 24 to 72 hour window. The ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance forecasts a 74 percent chance of a 65-knot increase over 72 hours; the NHC forecast shows 85 knots of strengthening over that same period and is slightly below the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean in the short term but very near both beyond day 2. The HAFS-A and HAFS-B models strengthen the cyclone to Category 4, with 36 of 50 Google DeepMind members reaching Category 4 or stronger. Beyond day 4, increasing vertical wind shear and potential land interaction could induce weakening; most guidance shows intensity loss after day 4.
Hazards and Alerts
Swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico late this week, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Interests in southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the storm's progress.
Official Forecast
| Forecast | Valid | Winds | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Tue 10/13/26 10 a.m. CDT | 35 mph | tropical depression |
| 12 hr | Tue 10/13/26 7 p.m. CDT | 45 mph | tropical storm |
| 24 hr | Wed 10/14/26 7 a.m. CDT | 60 mph | tropical storm |
| 36 hr | Wed 10/14/26 7 p.m. CDT | 75 mph | Category 1 hurricane |
| 48 hr | Thu 10/15/26 7 a.m. CDT | 90 mph | Category 1 hurricane |
| 60 hr | Thu 10/15/26 7 p.m. CDT | 115 mph | Category 3 hurricane |
| 72 hr | Fri 10/16/26 7 a.m. CDT | 130 mph | Category 4 hurricane |
| 96 hr | Sat 10/17/26 7 a.m. CDT | 140 mph | Category 4 hurricane |
| 120 hr | Sun 10/18/26 7 a.m. CDT | 120 mph | Category 3 hurricane |
What to Watch
The next advisory will assess tightening of the low-level circulation and convective development as the system begins intensification. Model consensus and track forecast confidence may improve as the system continues to organize.
More
- Tropical Depression Twenty-One-e: storm page, maps and every advisory
- National Hurricane Center advisory
Updated Tue 10/13/26 9:56 a.m. CDT
Quick Post
8:40 AM MDT
1 HOUR AGO
Higher elevation snow across Colorado and Wyoming through Thursday
Mountain snow arrives: A mid-level low will push from Nevada into Colorado by Wednesday and reach the central Plains by Thursday, delivering snow to high terrain across the region. The heaviest accumulation will remain above 9000 to 10000 feet, where probabilities for at least 8 additional inches exceed 50%.
- Where Colorado and Wyoming
- Risk Minor Impacts
The Setup
The upper-level system moves eastward from Nevada, with snow levels starting high at 8000 to 10000 feet before gradually lowering to 6500 to 9000 feet as the low passes overhead. HRRR analysis shows 500 mb winds of 73 kt near La Veta, Colorado and 250 mb winds of 134 kt, supporting vigorous upper-level flow. Surface temperatures across most of the region run 38 to 70°F, but the coldest air aloft remains confined to the high country: profiles stay below freezing through the column near South Fork, Colorado, and wind chills as low as 14°F sit near Silverton, Colorado. The strongest 850 mb wind reaches 40 kt from the west-southwest, driving moisture and lift toward elevated terrain. As the upper low moves directly overhead, lighter snow accumulations could fall as low as 7000 or 8000 feet.
Hazard by Hazard
- Snow: WPC probabilities exceed 50% for at least 8 additional inches above 9000 to 10000 feet in Colorado and Wyoming; the San Juan mountains and Medicine Bow and Mosquito ranges may see over a foot.
- Wind: Gusts up to 52 mph near Walsenburg, Colorado; 10 to 20 mph across Kansas, Nebraska and Wyoming.
- Visibility and blowing snow: Wind chills as low as 14°F near Silverton will compound impacts in elevated terrain where active snow occurs.
What Local Offices Are Saying
- The National Weather Service office in Wichita forecasts scattered to numerous thunderstorms late this afternoon through tonight across central, south-central and southeast Kansas, with primary hazards of heavy rainfall and localized flooding; a handful of severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and damaging winds.
- The National Weather Service office in Topeka estimates 60 to 90 percent odds of thunderstorms developing along a slow-moving cold front late this afternoon and early evening from Abilene to Oskaloosa southward, capable of 2-inch hail, 60 to 70 mph winds and torrential rainfall; a non-zero tornado chance is mentioned for this evening between 3 and 5 pm initiation.
- The National Weather Service office in Omaha notes that cooler air continues to push through the region with a frontal system in motion; isolated showers developing overnight across the Omaha metro are expected to clear by morning.
The Question Mark
How far down the elevation range accumulations extend could depend on how the upper low tracks directly over the highest peaks and lowers snow levels. If it weakens or tracks slightly faster than forecast, lighter amounts could remain confined to terrain above 9000 feet; if it stalls or deepens slightly, accumulations may reach lower passes.
Updated 9:40 a.m. CDT
Quick Post
8:20 AM MDT
1 HOUR AGO
Slight Risk flood setup across central Kansas late today
Deep moisture, slow movers: A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers northeast to southeast Kansas as scattered to numerous thunderstorms develop late this afternoon through early evening. Storm coverage peaks in the early morning hours, with the primary hazard being heavy rainfall and localized flooding from slow-moving convection.
- Where Kansas and Nebraska
- When Storm coverage peaks in the early morning in the model timing
- Risk Slight Risk (2 of 4)
The Setup
A weak surface reflection off the Colorado Front Range and a defined cold front stretching through central Nebraska may move very slowly as diffluent upper flow maximizes ascent south of I-80. The upper jet core aligns well over the Central Plains, with additional energy from the eastern Pacific and the western periphery of Hurricane Simon feeding into the High Plains. PWAT reaches 1.80 inches near Herington, Kansas, with most of the region holding 0.5 to 1.4 inches, supporting deep moisture transport. An 850 mb jet of 40 kt west-southwest of Inman, Kansas drives moisture delivery and enhances low-level shear; 0-6 km bulk shear runs 40 to 80 kt. MUCAPE is modest at 0 to 800 J/kg across most of the area, reaching 2,600 J/kg in isolated spots, limiting severe potential but allowing organized convection to tap into the available moisture.
How Today Unfolds
- Late afternoon and early evening: Thunderstorms initiate along and south of the slow-moving cold front across central Kansas.
- Early morning: Storm coverage peaks in the model timing as activity remains concentrated across central and southeast Kansas.
- Evening and overnight: Activity winds down as the slow-moving system continues to propagate little from its initiation points.
Hazard by Hazard
- Heavy rainfall and high rain rates: Deep PWAT of 1.80 inches and sustained convection favor training and backbuilding, especially where storms slow or stall. Torrential rainfall is possible with the strongest convection.
- Flash flooding: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms across central, south-central and southeast Kansas under the Slight Risk produce localized flooding concerns. A flood watch covers east-central Kansas south of Herington to Topeka.
What Local Offices Are Saying
- The Wichita office notes scattered to numerous thunderstorms late this afternoon through tonight across central, south-central and southeast Kansas, with heavy rainfall and localized flooding as the primary hazard. A few severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds.
- The Topeka office places a 60 to 90 percent chance of thunderstorms along a slow-moving cold front late afternoon and early evening, with higher chances south of a line from Abilene to Oskaloosa. Storm initiation between 3 and 5 pm will lead to increasing coverage through early evening, capable of severe hail to 2 inches, wind gusts 60 to 70 mph, torrential rainfall and a non-zero tornado threat.
- The Omaha office indicates isolated showers develop overnight across the metro with clearing expected by morning as conditions dry out on the northern flank.
The Question Mark
The main uncertainty hinges on the exact placement and speed of the cold front and how slowly storms move once initiated. Small shifts in the front position or changes in storm-motion speed could significantly alter where training and peak rainfall rates occur.
Updated 9:20 a.m. CDT
Quick Post
8:00 AM MDT
2 HOURS AGO
Slight Risk over central Kansas as shear and moisture align
Scattered storms today: The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for parts of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska and Wyoming today.
- Where Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska and Wyoming
- When Storm coverage peaks in the late morning in the model timing
- Risk Slight Risk (2 of 5)
- Tornado / Hail / Wind 5% / 15% / 5%
The Setup
A cold front is pushing southeastward across the region, with an 850 mb jet of about 40 kt driving moisture transport and low-level shear. The HRRR analysis shows MLCAPE mostly 0 to 400 J/kg across Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska and Wyoming, but stronger upper-level winds reach 73 kt at 500 mb and 134 kt at 250 mb. The 850-300 mb mean wind runs 37 to 54 kt, favoring storm motion. Low-level shear is substantial: 0-6 km bulk shear mostly 40 to 80 kt and 0-1 km SRH mostly 50 to 250 m2/s2. The strongest overlap near Osborne, KS shows SCP of 4.3 and 0-1 km SRH of 220 m2/s2, though MLCAPE at the surface is suppressed to 0 J/kg by a cap. LCL heights mostly 500 to 3,250 ft, with DCAPE reaching 1,050 to 1,600 J/kg, support organized downdrafts. PWAT ranges 0.5 to 1.4 in, limiting moisture for training rain.
How Today Unfolds
- Late morning: Storm coverage peaks in the late morning in the model timing.
- Evening: Activity winds down by evening; isolated activity may linger.
Hazard by Hazard
- Tornado: 5 percent probability; low-level shear and SRH support rotation where MLCAPE overcomes the surface cap.
- Large hail: 15 percent probability; strong upper winds and DCAPE values up to 1,600 J/kg enable updraft vigor and hail growth.
- Damaging wind: 5 percent probability; DCAPE and organized outflow boundaries in the cold pool may produce damaging gusts, though lower MLCAPE limits severity.
What Local Offices Are Saying
- The National Weather Service office in Topeka KS forecasts a 60 to 90 percent chance of thunderstorms along and south of a line from Abilene to Oskaloosa, with severe storms capable of hail to 2 inches, damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph, and non-zero tornado probability this evening.
- The National Weather Service office in Wichita KS expects scattered to numerous thunderstorms late this afternoon through tonight across central, south-central and southeast Kansas, with heavy rainfall and localized flooding as the primary hazard, though a handful of severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible.
The Question Mark
Forecasters note uncertainty in how readily near-surface destabilization overcomes the cap and how quickly the cold front lifts northward. If destabilization lags, storm mode and severity could shift toward QLCS structures with an emphasis on wind rather than tornadoes.
Updated 9:00 a.m. CDT
Quick Post
7:59 AM MDT
2 HOURS AGO
Snow Likely in the Rockies
The first bigger snowstorm of the season is set to impact portions of the Rockies over the next 72 hours, with totals on peaks in some ranges over a foot. A strong upper trough is moving nearly overhead with cool temperatures aloft, which will help lower snow levels to as low as 6000’ in some locations, enough to reach some valley floors. The heaviest totals are likely in the San Juans in southern Colorado. Some snow could reach portions of the Sangre De Cristo mountains in Northern New Mexico as well.
Quick Post
By Tornado Titans
7:00 AM MDT
3 HOURS AGO
Two flash flood warnings drench Arizona and Utah
Heavy rainfall swept: The flood day (10/12/26) brought 2 flash flood warnings.
- Flash flood warnings 2
- Flood reports 1
- All warnings 2
What Happened
The flood event unfolded across the Southwest as heavy rainfall moved through the region. Two flash flood warnings were issued by the National Weather Service across Arizona and Utah, with activity spanning from early morning into the overnight hours. One flood report was logged during the event as precipitation impacted the area.
Timeline
- 6:00 a.m. MDT: WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1484 issued for western and northern Arizona and southern Utah, highlighting heavy rainfall threat.
- 12:17 p.m. MDT: First flash flood report logged for Arizona at Nw Lees Ferry.
- 1:08 p.m. MDT: WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1485 issued, shifting focus to central and southeastern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and central Utah.
- 6:09 p.m. MDT: Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook downgraded from Slight Risk to Marginal Risk.
- 2:06 a.m. MDT: Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook upgraded back to Slight Risk.
Standouts
- Flooding reported at Nw Lees Ferry, Arizona at 12:00 p.m. MDT as heavy rainfall impacted the area.
The Warnings
The National Weather Service issued 2 flash flood warnings across Arizona and Utah during the event.
Updated 7:00 a.m. MDT
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