Pattern Change is Coming for the Plains/West for the First Half of October

The active, wet pattern that’s soaked the West over the past week is set to break down. CPC’s 6-10 day outlook points to a ridge building over the western and central CONUS, amplifying further by midweek of the period, and ushering in a drier, warmer stretch heading into mid-October.

That ridge translates to high confidence in above-normal temperatures across the western CONUS, with probabilities topping 80% through most of the region and exceeding 90% over parts of Southern California and Nevada.

• Dry turn: Elevated chances of below-normal precipitation stretch across the northwestern CONUS, the northern and central Plains, and most of the Midwest as the ridge sets up overhead.
• Not everywhere: Central/southern Texas and the Southeast buck the dry trend, with above-normal precipitation favored there, highest (60%+) along the eastern Gulf Coast and northern Florida.
• East Coast split: A trough over the northeastern CONUS early in the period quickly slides into the Atlantic, only for another trough to dip back into the Northeast later in the window. That keeps below-normal temperatures favored there, a contrast to the warmth building everywhere else.
• Gulf/Florida: Above-normal temperatures are favored here too, under southerly flow ahead of that same Northeast trough.

Bottom line: after an active stretch out west, confidence is high that the next week to ten days brings a drier, warmer pattern to most of the CONUS.