The Southwest is About to See The Most Rain It’s Had in a Very Long Time

A historic flash flooding/flooding event may occur over portions of the Southwest as saturated soils will now have to deal with another major round of rainfall coming in today through Wednesday. Many areas may pick up half of a year’s worth of rainfall in just 24-36 hours associated with the remnants of Hurricane Polo.

WPC expects widespread heavy rain and numerous instances of flash flooding across the Southwest, spreading into the southern High Plains. Polo’s leftover energy gets folded into an upper trough crossing the Southwest. As that trough moves east, the better forcing shifts southeast into southeastern Arizona and New Mexico, including the especially vulnerable southeastern part of New Mexico.

• Heaviest axis: Where the Texas Panhandle, northeast New Mexico, and southeast Colorado meet is where WPC expects the strongest rain. Some models differ with a more SW axis. Worth watching.
• Fuel: A strong low-level jet from eastern Mexico to the central Plains pumps deep moisture north as it meets strong upper-level forcing.
• Risk area: A broad Moderate Risk stretches from south-central Arizona to the Panhandle region and north into western Kansas.