Heavy rain and flash flooding possible southern Texas
Heavy rainfall threat: Heavy rain from thunderstorms capable of producing hourly amounts to 3 inches and local totals to 5 inches is possible across southern Texas through 11:46 p.m. CDT. Flash flooding could be widely scattered.
Context
Showers and thunderstorms will remain a daily possibility through next week, with heavy rainfall the primary concern from this weekend into Tuesday as moisture streams into a stalled boundary near the coast.
What’s Driving It
A convective low lies offshore with a convergence zone in its wind field, focusing thunderstorm activity over southern Texas. Precipitable water near 2.7 inches and MUCAPE near 2940 J/kg support the potential for heavy rainfall. Mesoscale guidance indicates skirmishes of intense precipitation are possible, with hourly rain amounts to 3 inches and local totals to 5 inches most problematic in urban areas.
What To Look For
The heaviest rain is expected through the weekend and into early next week, with the greatest threat shifting toward coastal counties where 3 to 5 inches are most likely. A low 10 percent chance exists for isolated 5 to 8 inch totals across coastal counties if heavier storms persist and train over the same areas.